Econometric Analysis of the Developing Countries’ Trade Indicators
ABSTRACT
In this paper, the author attempted to study the patterns of the export and import shares of the developing countries and found out the relation of export and import share with its determinants like growth rate, inflation rate, FDI, current account balance, REER, concentration index, and diversification index respectively during 1980-2016 where FDI, REER, and diversification index significantly influenced the export and import shares respectively. Both the export and import shares have upward structural breaks and smooth cyclical trends. Their VAR models are unstable and non-stationary.
Keywords: Export shares; Import shares; Concentration index; Diversification index; Growth rate; foreign direct investment; Inflation rate; real effective exchange rate; Co integration; Vector auto regression.
Author(s):Dr. Debesh Bhowmik